Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya • ISSN 2075-7999
peer-reviewed • open access journal
      

 

Poddiakov A.N., Eliseenko A.S. Relations between subjective uncertainty and performance in complex problem solving (based on the management of virtual factory)

Full text in Russian: Поддьяков А.Н., Елисеенко А.С. Связи субъективной неопределенности и эффективности решения комплексной проблемы (на материале деятельности управления виртуальной фабрикой)
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

About authors
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The process of complex problem solving while exploring and managing a virtual factory simulated by a computer dynamic scenario is considered. The relations between: (a) estimates of subjective uncertainty (beliefs about features of the system explored and managed, methods of the problem solving, expectations of effects of one’s actions), and (b) performance in complex problem solving (measured as increase/decrease of amount of virtual money) are identified. It is shown that subjective uncertainty has a complex structure and affects complex problem solving in different ways. It can be a powerful factor of positive motivation (via interest in the task) or a factor of negative motivation and desire to escape from the complex problem solving situation. There were two different mechanisms of uncertainty reduction in different types of the problem solvers. The solvers with exploratory behavior demonstrate step-by-step increase of optimistic certainty and confidence based on more and more successful orientation in the system and methods of work with it. The solvers with chaotic or rigid behavior demonstrate increase of pessimistic certainty caused by repeating failures, growing confidence in their inability to cope with the task, and desire to get out of the complex problem situation. A regression model of relations between subjective uncertainty and efficiency of complex problem solving is proposed.

Keywords: complex problem solving, uncertainty, dynamics, computer scenarios

 

Funding
The study was conducted as a part of the Federal Target Program “Academic and teaching staff of innovative Russia for 2009-2013”, Project 2012-1.2.1-12-000-3005-3961, “The study of psychological conditions and development of innovative techniques for well-grounded economic decision making in modern Russia”.


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Received 3 March 2013. Date of publication: 27 April 2013.

About authors

Poddiakov Alexander N. Ph.D., Professor, Department of psychology, Higher School of Economics (National Research University), ul. Miasnitskaya, 20, 101990 Moscow, Russia
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Eliseenko Alexander S. Master of psychology, postgraduate student, Laboratory of Cognitive psychology, Department of psychology, Higher School of Economics (National Research University), ul. Miasnitskaya, 20, 101990 Moscow, Russia
E-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра. 

Suggested citation

Poddiakov A.N., Eliseenko A.S. Relations between subjective uncertainty and performance in complex problem solving (based on the management of virtual factory). Psikhologicheskie Issledovaniya, 2013, Vol. 6, No. 28, p.4. http://psystudy.ru (in Russian, abstr. in English).

Permanent URL: http://psystudy.ru/index.php/eng/2013v6n28e/794-poddiakov28e.html

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